Unbalanced

Just a quick thing that’s been bouncing around in my head. I wanted to see if the seeding in the BET was affected at all by strength of schedule. What triggered this was looking at DePaul’s schedule and noticing that they played Cincinnati twice, and the Bearcats ended up with 11 conference wins to put them into the upper half of the standings while UConn - who many would say is a better team - ends up seeded 10th with only 9 wins, but having played Louisville, ND, and Marquette twice.

So I cobbled together a quick spreadsheet of the season records and put together a conference-only RPI, based on the standard RPI formula (W%/4 + OW%/2 + OOW%/4). Here are the results:

Turns out that it’s true that UConn had the toughest schedule, in terms of opponents’ winning percentage. Georgetown was a close second. Pitt’s opponents had the lowest cumulative winning percentage (partly due to the fact that Pitt didn’t play themselves) while Cincy and Louisville tied for second-easiest schedule. But if you had seeded the Big East Tournament by RPI, it wouldn’t look that different from how it actually came out. The only changes are:

(1) Georgetown would be 7 and Cincinnati 8
(2) Louisville would be 5 and St. John’s 3

That’s it. Everyone else would end up on the same seed line as they actually did. So if you happen to be at MSG on Tuesday and hear UConn fans bitching about playing on the first day, you can feel free to beat them over the head with this set of data. (Figuratively speaking, of course.)

(Click here for a larger image showing the team-by-team schedule breakdown.)

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